Across Australia, the construction industry is responding to new market pressures and changing buyer behaviour, and Canberra is no exception. The region is steady, quieter than surrounding cities, but still moving through an important transition. Residential demand has shifted, commercial arenas are weaker than they have been in years, and developers are reconsidering where the real long-term value sits. In the middle of these changes, Quantity Surveyors are becoming increasingly important to forecast certainty from planning to completion.

Canberra’s population data provides helpful context for how development has been tracking. At the end of December 2024, ACT reached an estimated 481,677 residents. This was a quarterly rise of about 0.3 percent and a yearly growth of 1.4 percent, which is slightly slower than the national rate of 1.7 percent. Over the past decade, the ACT has added more than 70,000 people with an average increase of around 7,000 each year.

Recent growth has been shaped mostly by natural increase and overseas migration, while interstate migration has been negative, with more residents leaving than arriving. These patterns influence who developers are building for, how quickly projects move and what types of dwellings find buyers.

Residential approvals highlight this shift. In the 2024 to 2025 financial year, the ACT recorded only about 2,731 new dwellings approved, well below the annual target of 4,212 needed to meet the territory’s contribution to the National Housing Accord (Source: Property Council of Australia). Industry groups have described it as the slowest year for approvals in nearly twenty years. Monthly data has been mixed. In May 2025, the number of dwellings approved in terms of ‘trend’ fell 8 percent compared with the previous year. Yet April 2025 showed an 8.6 percent increase in approvals when compared month to month. By June 2025, approvals lifted further, reaching about 695 new dwellings, almost double the monthly target suggested under the Accord. The value of construction work done in the June quarter of 2025 increased by 17.5 percent in the ACT, although national data shows that this lift came mostly from non-residential projects.

These figures reflect a market that is still active but moving unpredictably. According to Mitchell Brandtman’s Canberra Partner, Shane Brandtman, commercial buildings are a challenge with high vacancy levels, while residential sentiment varies between suburbs. Build-to-rent has become one of the more promising paths for developers, not only in central areas but also in locations around the ACT such as Murrumbateman, Sutton, Googong and Yass. These edges of Canberra are attracting strong rental demand and continue to provide a more workable model, partly because returns are based on the total cost of construction rather than the slower sales experienced in the current apartment market.

Developers who we work with describe Canberra’s rental market as consistently strong. Construction prices remain lower than in many other cities, which helps build-to-rent developers who benefit when total project costs are controlled. In his view, the long-game nature of build-to-rent is what makes it attractive. The value is in holding stock until improved conditions lift returns across the portfolio.

However, apartment sales paint a different picture. Some pockets, particularly in the inner north and inner south, continue to perform because they appeal to owner occupiers and downsizers. But other projects have not reached expectations. With construction costs above what the market could support, these projects struggle and are expected to remain slow for some time.

These challenges have led developers to rethink their strategies. Many are using this period to progress development approvals, refine designs and prepare sites for the next cycle rather than pushing large new projects to market immediately. Several are also looking outward to land subdivisions, industrial sites and rural residential opportunities near the ACT. Some are focusing only on build-to-rent within Canberra until the market catches up to the returns needed to justify larger projects.

Subcontractors & Skilled Labour

One consistent message from developers is the growing pressure on subcontractors and skilled labour. The workforce continues to move north toward Queensland due to the strong pipeline and the upcoming Olympics. This shift has raised concerns about future pricing. If Canberra’s market becomes more active, the limited number of subcontractors may lead to higher quoting levels as trades prioritise jobs with stronger margins. Some subcontractors are currently accepting lower returns just to maintain workflow for their teams. The question is how long they can sustain that approach.

This is where Quantity Surveyors become essential. With constant changes to labour rates, material prices and subcontractor capacity, developers need accurate figures early and often. Some developers we have consulted for noted that many firms have been caught out in recent years by relying on assumed prices rather than current numbers. This highlights that the relationship between a developer and a Quantity Surveyor is most valuable when it produces real time cost understanding during feasibility. Better clarity at that stage influences funding decisions, design choices and ultimately the success of the project.

At Mitchell Brandtman, this approach mirrors how our teams work across the construction project lifecycle. Quantity Surveyors gather and interpret information from a range of sources, track local movements in pricing and use that to guide project direction before the first contract is signed. As Canberra’s cost environment continues to shift, the ability to update estimates quickly, identify where risk sits and support funding submissions becomes central to project certainty. It also supports a smoother construction stage because the builder and developer both begin the project with shared expectations.

Government policy is another factor shaping the environment. Post-covid, many are choosing to pursue work in other States. Even so, government projects within Canberra continue to contribute strongly to the overall construction workload. These projects also influence wages and subcontractor availability, which flows through to private sector work. While the settings may feel challenging now, the presence of strong public projects will help maintain skilled labour in the region, which will be important when the private market strengthens again.

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, developers expect the most successful projects in the next five to ten years to be smaller in scale and more targeted to owner occupiers. Projects between about 30 and 100 units in the inner suburbs are likely to perform better than larger schemes in outer areas. Build to rent will continue to be promising if developers can control costs below prevailing market rates and secure well priced land. Buyers and tenants in Canberra are not yet willing to pay for premium sustainability features in residential buildings, so keeping the operational costs low will remain a priority.

Canberra may be quieter than other cities today, but it is still preparing for another period of growth. The region remains stable, the rental market is strong, and the surrounding areas are attracting increasing interest. Projects that succeed will be those built on good market insight, realistic cost planning and early collaboration between developers, designers, subcontractors and Quantity Surveyors. With the right groundwork, the next cycle in Canberra has the potential to offer solid opportunities for those who understand what is to come and invest with a long view.

As construction projects become more complex and financial structures more layered, understanding the role and value of a Quantity Surveyor has become so important. While most in the industry know that a QS provides cost advice and oversight, it is in a project’s benefit for all to realise the very different responsibilities of a Financier’s QS, Developer’s QS, and Superintendent’s QS.

According to Tass Assarapin, Partner at Mitchell Brandtman and head of Mitchell Brandtman’s Sydney CBD office, these roles are often confused and sometimes blurred, but the distinction between them is critical.

“They’re technically three completely different roles. The Financier’s QS acts as a representative for the Financier, the Developer’s QS works on behalf of the Developer, and the Superintendent’s QS sits right in between, administering the contract independent of both sides.”

The Financier’s QS: The Eyes and Ears of the Lender

A Financier’s QS reports to the Financier, even though the Developer is usually the one paying their fee. Their brief is narrower, but no less important. A Financier will look to their QS to confirm the cost to complete, review the project funding table and assess if the program is achievable. They also review and comment on authority approvals and insurances, while providing independent reporting on progress and other potential risks.

“The Financier’s QS is accountable to the Financier,” Tass notes. “Their brief is specific, and they’re essentially the Financier’s eyes and ears on site.” It is a reporting-heavy role where independence is non-negotiable.

The Developer’s QS: Seeing it from the Developer’s Position

A Developer’s QS is engaged directly by the Developer, and their role is to work in the Developer’s best interests. This often begins with feasibility studies and cost planning and extends through to assessing progress claims and contract variations. The Developer’s QS is, in many ways, the Developer’s advocate, ensuring the project budgets are achievable and therefore keeping the budget viable.

“It’s basically a QS that’s there to assist the Developer in achieving the best outcome,” Tass explains.

The Superintendent’s QS: Independent Contract Administrator

Unlike the other two roles, the Superintendent’s QS is bound by the contract itself. They are not working for the Developer, the Financier, or the builder, but are instead there to oversee the contract independently in liaison with a project Superintendent.

A key responsibility is the assessment of variations, which, when handled correctly, can save a project significant cost and reduce disputes.

“With that independence, we see a great value in a QS assessing and determining the quantum of variations, as there could be millions of dollars saved just in the assessment of contract variations alone.”

Why Independence Matters

Tass cautions against attempts to combine roles, such as appointing the same QS as both the Financier’s QS and the Superintendent’s QS. In his view, this creates unnecessary conflict because the priorities of a Financier and the obligations of a Contract do not always match.

“We would strongly recommend keeping the Superintendent’s QS role completely independent from the role of the Financier’s QS,” he says. “The stipulations of a Contract can sometimes juxtapose with a Financier’s brief, particularly regarding things like cost to complete or unfixed materials.”

For example, Contracts may allow deposits and payments unfixed materials, but Financiers typically avoid this unless supported by unconditional Bank Guarantees. Contracts may permit milestone or cost-to-date payments, while Financiers usually require payments strictly aligned to cost-to-complete. These differences can quickly create friction, highlighting why independence between roles is essential to maintain trust and protect all parties.

Industry Observations and Insights

Across the industry, several observations are reshaping the QS landscape. “The briefs are getting bigger and bigger, and the Financiers are asking for additional reporting,” notes Tass, describing how lender requirements are pushing the Financier QS role toward quasi-project-management territory.

At the same time, he warns that “we’re seeing the Superintendent’s QS role decrease,” a trend that can be costly given the financial impact when independent oversight of contract variations is reduced.

Finally, Tass cautions Developers not to treat Financier’s QS reports as if they were their own: “Those reports are for the lender, the disclaimers make that very clear.” To protect their interests, Developers should always engage their own QS rather than relying on reports commissioned by Financiers.